UNH: factor decomposition (Healthcare)

How much of UNH's move over the window is systematic (market, XLV sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+8.45ppSector (excess)+17.97ppRate (excess)+0.18ppIdiosyncratic-2.14pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+0.42
Beta · Sector-excess (XLV)+0.76
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.05
R²0.13
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

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Moderate confidence: R² is 0.13; these three factors explain some but not most of UNH's day-to-day variance. Treat the split below as directional.

Of UNH's +24.5pp move over this window, -2.1pp (9% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+26.6pp) came from systematic exposure: market +8.5pp, sector +18.0pp, rate +0.2pp.

Generated 2026-09-25 07:03 UTC · factor-decomposition · simple 3-factor OLS (market, sector-excess, rate-excess, mutually orthogonalized) · log returns, additive over the window · a transparent estimate, not a commercial risk model: treat betas as directional, always check R² first.