TSLA: factor decomposition (Consumer Disc.)

How much of TSLA's move over the window is systematic (market, XLY sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+45.35ppSector (excess)-2.00ppRate (excess)+1.76ppIdiosyncratic-28.51pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+2.25
Beta · Sector-excess (XLY)+1.33
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.49
R²0.50
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

Read

R² is 0.50: a reasonably reliable fit; the betas and the split below are worth reading at face value.

Note: the net move here (+16.6pp) is small relative to the systematic and idiosyncratic swings underneath it; they're largely offsetting each other, which is why the idiosyncratic share below exceeds 100% (it's dividing by a small net, not an error). Read the pp values themselves as the meaningful numbers here, not the ratio.

Of TSLA's +16.6pp move over this window, -28.5pp (172% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+45.1pp) came from systematic exposure: market +45.4pp, sector -2.0pp, rate +1.8pp.