TSLA — factor decomposition (Consumer Disc.)

How much of TSLA's move over the window is systematic (market, XLY sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+46.40ppSector (excess)-0.00ppRate (excess)-0.00ppIdiosyncratic-50.32pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+2.26
Beta · Sector-excess (XLY)+1.53
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.39
0.51
Window2025-06-30 → 2026-07-31 (274 trading days)

Read

R² is 0.51 — a reasonably reliable fit; the betas and the split below are worth reading at face value.

Note: the net move here (-3.9pp) is small relative to the systematic and idiosyncratic swings underneath it — they're largely offsetting each other, which is why the idiosyncratic share below exceeds 100% (it's dividing by a small net, not an error). Read the pp values themselves as the meaningful numbers here, not the ratio.

Of TSLA's -3.9pp move over this window, -50.3pp (1286% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic — not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+46.4pp) came from systematic exposure: market +46.4pp, sector -0.0pp, rate -0.0pp.