RTX — factor decomposition (Defense)

How much of RTX's move over the window is systematic (market, XLI sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+8.34ppSector (excess)+0.00ppRate (excess)-0.00ppIdiosyncratic+32.96pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+0.41
Beta · Sector-excess (XLI)+1.08
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)+0.00
R²0.28
Window2025-06-30 → 2026-07-31 (274 trading days)

Read

Moderate confidence: R² is 0.28 — these three factors explain some but not most of RTX's day-to-day variance. Treat the split below as directional.

Of RTX's +41.3pp move over this window, +33.0pp (80% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic — not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+8.3pp) came from systematic exposure: market +8.3pp, sector +0.0pp, rate -0.0pp.

Generated 2026-08-01 18:46 UTC · factor-decomposition · simple 3-factor OLS (market, sector-excess, rate-excess, mutually orthogonalized) · log returns, additive over the window · a transparent estimate, not a commercial risk model — treat betas as directional, always check R² first.