QSR: factor decomposition (Consumer Disc.)

How much of QSR's move over the window is systematic (market, XLY sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+2.23ppSector (excess)-0.61ppRate (excess)-0.52ppIdiosyncratic+14.01pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+0.11
Beta · Sector-excess (XLY)+0.41
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)+0.15
R²0.05
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

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Low confidence in this split. R² is only 0.05: market, sector, and rate moves together barely track QSR's day-to-day returns over this window, so the betas below are noisy and the systematic/idiosyncratic split is rough at best. This itself is informative: QSR is trading on its own news, not macro.

Of QSR's +15.1pp move over this window, +14.0pp (93% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+1.1pp) came from systematic exposure: market +2.2pp, sector -0.6pp, rate -0.5pp.