PR: factor decomposition (Energy)

How much of PR's move over the window is systematic (market, XLE sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market-6.66ppSector (excess)+51.26ppRate (excess)+0.62ppIdiosyncratic+10.20pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)-0.33
Beta · Sector-excess (XLE)+1.26
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.17
R²0.62
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

Read

R² is 0.62: a reasonably reliable fit; the betas and the split below are worth reading at face value.

Of PR's +55.4pp move over this window, +10.2pp (18% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+45.2pp) came from systematic exposure: market -6.7pp, sector +51.3pp, rate +0.6pp.

Generated 2026-09-25 07:03 UTC · factor-decomposition · simple 3-factor OLS (market, sector-excess, rate-excess, mutually orthogonalized) · log returns, additive over the window · a transparent estimate, not a commercial risk model: treat betas as directional, always check R² first.