Moderate confidence: R² is 0.18 — these three factors explain some but not most of PLTR's day-to-day variance. Treat the split below as directional.
Note: the net move here (-6.1pp) is small relative to the systematic and idiosyncratic swings underneath it — they're largely offsetting each other, which is why the idiosyncratic share below exceeds 100% (it's dividing by a small net, not an error). Read the pp values themselves as the meaningful numbers here, not the ratio.
Of PLTR's -6.1pp move over this window, -39.8pp (657% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic — not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+33.7pp) came from systematic exposure: market +33.7pp, sector -0.0pp, rate -0.0pp.