PANW — factor decomposition (Technology)

How much of PANW's move over the window is systematic (market, XLK sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+1.20

Beta · Sector-excess (XLK)+0.57

Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)+0.06

R²0.16

Window2025-06-30 → 2026-07-31 (274 trading days)

Read

Moderate confidence: R² is 0.16 — these three factors explain some but not most of PANW's day-to-day variance. Treat the split below as directional.

Of PANW's +50.3pp move over this window, +25.6pp (51% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic — not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+24.7pp) came from systematic exposure: market +24.7pp, sector +0.0pp, rate -0.0pp.