MU: factor decomposition (Technology)

How much of MU's move over the window is systematic (market, XLK sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+65.56ppSector (excess)+131.97ppRate (excess)-0.18ppIdiosyncratic+26.16pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+3.25
Beta · Sector-excess (XLK)+3.18
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)+0.05
R²0.58
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

Read

R² is 0.58: a reasonably reliable fit; the betas and the split below are worth reading at face value.

Of MU's +223.5pp move over this window, +26.2pp (12% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+197.3pp) came from systematic exposure: market +65.6pp, sector +132.0pp, rate -0.2pp.

Generated 2026-09-25 07:03 UTC · factor-decomposition · simple 3-factor OLS (market, sector-excess, rate-excess, mutually orthogonalized) · log returns, additive over the window · a transparent estimate, not a commercial risk model: treat betas as directional, always check R² first.