LMT — factor decomposition (Defense)

How much of LMT's move over the window is systematic (market, XLI sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+0.96ppSector (excess)-0.00ppRate (excess)+0.00ppIdiosyncratic+25.66pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+0.05
Beta · Sector-excess (XLI)+0.93
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.18
R²0.14
Window2025-06-30 → 2026-07-31 (274 trading days)

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Moderate confidence: R² is 0.14 — these three factors explain some but not most of LMT's day-to-day variance. Treat the split below as directional.

Of LMT's +26.6pp move over this window, +25.7pp (96% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic — not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+1.0pp) came from systematic exposure: market +1.0pp, sector -0.0pp, rate +0.0pp.

Generated 2026-08-01 18:46 UTC · factor-decomposition · simple 3-factor OLS (market, sector-excess, rate-excess, mutually orthogonalized) · log returns, additive over the window · a transparent estimate, not a commercial risk model — treat betas as directional, always check R² first.