KO: factor decomposition (Consumer Staples)

How much of KO's move over the window is systematic (market, XLP sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market-5.38ppSector (excess)+2.19ppRate (excess)+0.03ppIdiosyncratic+28.60pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)-0.27
Beta · Sector-excess (XLP)+0.89
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.01
R²0.52
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

Read

R² is 0.52: a reasonably reliable fit; the betas and the split below are worth reading at face value.

Note: the net move here (+25.4pp) is small relative to the systematic and idiosyncratic swings underneath it; they're largely offsetting each other, which is why the idiosyncratic share below exceeds 100% (it's dividing by a small net, not an error). Read the pp values themselves as the meaningful numbers here, not the ratio.

Of KO's +25.4pp move over this window, +28.6pp (112% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (-3.2pp) came from systematic exposure: market -5.4pp, sector +2.2pp, rate +0.0pp.