KO — factor decomposition (Consumer Staples)

How much of KO's move over the window is systematic (market, XLP sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market-5.57ppSector (excess)-0.00ppRate (excess)-0.00ppIdiosyncratic+30.31pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)-0.27
Beta · Sector-excess (XLP)+0.92
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)+0.04
0.52
Window2025-06-30 → 2026-07-31 (274 trading days)

Read

R² is 0.52 — a reasonably reliable fit; the betas and the split below are worth reading at face value.

Note: the net move here (+24.7pp) is small relative to the systematic and idiosyncratic swings underneath it — they're largely offsetting each other, which is why the idiosyncratic share below exceeds 100% (it's dividing by a small net, not an error). Read the pp values themselves as the meaningful numbers here, not the ratio.

Of KO's +24.7pp move over this window, +30.3pp (123% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic — not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (-5.6pp) came from systematic exposure: market -5.6pp, sector -0.0pp, rate -0.0pp.