Moderate confidence: R² is 0.25; these three factors explain some but not most of ICE's day-to-day variance. Treat the split below as directional.
Note: the net move here (-11.7pp) is small relative to the systematic and idiosyncratic swings underneath it; they're largely offsetting each other, which is why the idiosyncratic share below exceeds 100% (it's dividing by a small net, not an error). Read the pp values themselves as the meaningful numbers here, not the ratio.
Of ICE's -11.7pp move over this window, -21.4pp (183% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+9.7pp) came from systematic exposure: market +5.4pp, sector +5.1pp, rate -0.7pp.