GOOGL: factor decomposition (Technology)

How much of GOOGL's move over the window is systematic (market, XLK sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+27.68ppSector (excess)-28.59ppRate (excess)-0.05ppIdiosyncratic+55.18pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+1.37
Beta · Sector-excess (XLK)-0.69
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)+0.01
R²0.38
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

Read

R² is 0.38: a reasonably reliable fit; the betas and the split below are worth reading at face value.

Note: the net move here (+54.2pp) is small relative to the systematic and idiosyncratic swings underneath it; they're largely offsetting each other, which is why the idiosyncratic share below exceeds 100% (it's dividing by a small net, not an error). Read the pp values themselves as the meaningful numbers here, not the ratio.

Of GOOGL's +54.2pp move over this window, +55.2pp (102% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (-1.0pp) came from systematic exposure: market +27.7pp, sector -28.6pp, rate -0.0pp.