ARIS: factor decomposition (Energy)

How much of ARIS's move over the window is systematic (market, XLE sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+41.08ppSector (excess)-9.08ppRate (excess)-0.16ppIdiosyncratic+67.28pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+2.04
Beta · Sector-excess (XLE)-0.22
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)+0.04
R²0.17
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

Read

Moderate confidence: R² is 0.17; these three factors explain some but not most of ARIS's day-to-day variance. Treat the split below as directional.

Of ARIS's +99.1pp move over this window, +67.3pp (68% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+31.8pp) came from systematic exposure: market +41.1pp, sector -9.1pp, rate -0.2pp.

Generated 2026-09-25 07:03 UTC · factor-decomposition · simple 3-factor OLS (market, sector-excess, rate-excess, mutually orthogonalized) · log returns, additive over the window · a transparent estimate, not a commercial risk model: treat betas as directional, always check R² first.