ARDX: factor decomposition (Healthcare)

How much of ARDX's move over the window is systematic (market, XLV sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+16.36ppSector (excess)+3.64ppRate (excess)+0.15ppIdiosyncratic-77.30pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+0.81
Beta · Sector-excess (XLV)+0.15
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.04
R²0.03
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

Read

Low confidence in this split. R² is only 0.03: market, sector, and rate moves together barely track ARDX's day-to-day returns over this window, so the betas below are noisy and the systematic/idiosyncratic split is rough at best. This itself is informative: ARDX is trading on its own news, not macro.

Note: the net move here (-57.2pp) is small relative to the systematic and idiosyncratic swings underneath it; they're largely offsetting each other, which is why the idiosyncratic share below exceeds 100% (it's dividing by a small net, not an error). Read the pp values themselves as the meaningful numbers here, not the ratio.

Of ARDX's -57.2pp move over this window, -77.3pp (135% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+20.1pp) came from systematic exposure: market +16.4pp, sector +3.6pp, rate +0.1pp.