AMD: factor decomposition (Technology)

How much of AMD's move over the window is systematic (market, XLK sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+62.47ppSector (excess)+98.02ppRate (excess)+0.31ppIdiosyncratic-26.17pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+3.10
Beta · Sector-excess (XLK)+2.36
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.09
R²0.54
Window2025-08-22 → 2026-09-24 (273 trading days)

Read

R² is 0.54: a reasonably reliable fit; the betas and the split below are worth reading at face value.

Of AMD's +134.6pp move over this window, -26.2pp (19% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic, not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+160.8pp) came from systematic exposure: market +62.5pp, sector +98.0pp, rate +0.3pp.

Generated 2026-09-25 07:03 UTC · factor-decomposition · simple 3-factor OLS (market, sector-excess, rate-excess, mutually orthogonalized) · log returns, additive over the window · a transparent estimate, not a commercial risk model: treat betas as directional, always check R² first.