AAPL — factor decomposition (Technology)

How much of AAPL's move over the window is systematic (market, XLK sector-excess, rate-excess via TLT) vs. idiosyncratic (stock-specific).

Return decomposition (log-return points, additive)

Market+16.25ppSector (excess)+0.00ppRate (excess)+0.00ppIdiosyncratic+27.08pp

Factor betas

Beta · Market (SPY)+0.79
Beta · Sector-excess (XLK)-0.33
Beta · Rate-excess (TLT)-0.09
R²0.18
Window2025-06-30 → 2026-07-31 (274 trading days)

Read

Moderate confidence: R² is 0.18 — these three factors explain some but not most of AAPL's day-to-day variance. Treat the split below as directional.

Of AAPL's +43.3pp move over this window, +27.1pp (62% of the total magnitude) is idiosyncratic — not explained by riding market, sector, or rate moves. The rest (+16.3pp) came from systematic exposure: market +16.3pp, sector +0.0pp, rate +0.0pp.

Generated 2026-08-01 18:46 UTC · factor-decomposition · simple 3-factor OLS (market, sector-excess, rate-excess, mutually orthogonalized) · log returns, additive over the window · a transparent estimate, not a commercial risk model — treat betas as directional, always check R² first.