| Unit | Mean post-period gap | Max abs. gap |
|---|---|---|
| XLK (treated) | +22.28% | 31.16% |
| XLI | +13.10% | 17.25% |
| XLC | -8.39% | 12.41% |
| XLF | +7.34% | 13.70% |
| XLY | -7.03% | 13.90% |
| XLP | -5.41% | 7.02% |
| XLV | -3.96% | 11.72% |
| XLB | -2.73% | 7.00% |
| XLE | +2.25% | 13.24% |
| XLRE | +1.41% | 3.09% |
| XLU | -1.31% | 3.85% |
Caution on fit quality: the fit-window RMSE is 0.60× this unit's own fit-window standard deviation — a loose fit. Treat the gap below as suggestive at best, not a clean read.
XLK's post-period gap ranks #1 of 11 units by absolute size in the placebo test (larger rank = more likely a real, unit-specific effect rather than noise the method would produce for any random unit).
Caution: the confound-window gap (+13.17) is already a substantial fraction of the post-period gap (+35.54) — this divergence looks like it was emerging before the treatment date, so the treatment can't cleanly take full credit for the post-period gap.
Read: this looks like a real, unit-specific effect — the gap this method finds for the treated unit is larger than what it produces when re-run on most other units in the donor pool.